See how juniors get raises, while seniors get flat-lined? That's the downward pressure of H1Bs as well as evidence of buyers' (hiring managers) actual purchasing behavior markedly different from "we can't find anyone who can do basic fizz buzz! we need people with skillz!".
Wouldn't this affect everybody across the board?
I think the senior salary flat-lining and junior salary growing is pretty much the law of nature in any occupation - there's a salary band for a given skill, and those who start at the bottom and are any good progress fast, those who start at the bottom and are no good drop out of the race and go do something else, and senior people pretty much know they're at the top of salary range and need to move into management or open up their own consulting firm.
Possibly yes in real dollars, definitely no in inflation dollars. At the very minimum, even with a flatline we should be seeing ~3% increases to compensate for inflation. Beyond the minimum, people still grow salary-wise in senior positions e.g. between $100k and $150k, especially if the whole dire shortage of talent thing were true.
Mobile developers: http://www.indeed.com/salary?q1=Mobile+Developer&l1=Unit...
Senior Android developers: http://www.indeed.com/salary?q1=Android+Developer&l1=Uni...
Junior Java developers: http://www.indeed.com/salary?q1=Junior+Java+Developer&l1...
Node.js: http://www.indeed.com/salary?q1=Node.js+&l1=United+State...
No matter what you plug in, you will see 2-year inflation-adjusted increases in the vicinity of 0%.
Even better, go ahead and play around with same title, different seniority.
Junior iOS programmer: http://www.indeed.com/salary?q1=junior++ios+programmer&l...
Senior iOS programmer: http://www.indeed.com/salary?q1=senior++ios+programmer&l...
See how juniors get raises, while seniors get flat-lined? That's the downward pressure of H1Bs as well as evidence of buyers' (hiring managers) actual purchasing behavior markedly different from "we can't find anyone who can do basic fizz buzz! we need people with skillz!".