Weak signal given the size of the companies and their volatilities.
Let's observe the quoted, albeit stale, Google market capitalisation of $249.2 billion with a current vega-weighted mean implied volatility (market's opinion of what Google's volatility will be) of 31.12% and the quoted Microsoft market cap of $248.7 billion with an IV index of 22.51%. The question is, assuming these two Gaussian random variables vary independently [1], what is the probability that GOOG is still bigger than MSFT in one year? The answer is a hair above 50%. Plugging in $249.65 billion for Google and $248.02 billion for Microsoft (closer to present values) this probability rises closer to 51%.
Conclusion: insufficient evidence that this is more than random market jittering just yet.
[1] If this were more than a quick, stylised analysis I'd construct a covariance matrix or copula to describe the dependency structure. Given the razor thin odds, however, it is unlikely that correlation will help the OP's case too much.
It's still a rather remarkable milestone. In a relatively short amount of time, the #1 "unstoppable" company in tech was passed by both it's smaller competitor (Apple) and an entirely new company (Google).
yes indeed, i agree that many times, what people referred as Small Bubbles, create a Huge dynamic impact on the world. The same is the case with Google. And for Apple, only Hats Off :)
They are not Gaussian random vars - a very dominant growth factor ("mu" as you would call it in a stochastic process) applies to both - which is higher in Google's case - without a doubt.
Let's observe the quoted, albeit stale, Google market capitalisation of $249.2 billion with a current vega-weighted mean implied volatility (market's opinion of what Google's volatility will be) of 31.12% and the quoted Microsoft market cap of $248.7 billion with an IV index of 22.51%. The question is, assuming these two Gaussian random variables vary independently [1], what is the probability that GOOG is still bigger than MSFT in one year? The answer is a hair above 50%. Plugging in $249.65 billion for Google and $248.02 billion for Microsoft (closer to present values) this probability rises closer to 51%.
Conclusion: insufficient evidence that this is more than random market jittering just yet.
[1] If this were more than a quick, stylised analysis I'd construct a covariance matrix or copula to describe the dependency structure. Given the razor thin odds, however, it is unlikely that correlation will help the OP's case too much.